Iran presents a special problem for Israel. MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) doesn't work with a people anxious to "die for Allah". What greater deterrent is there for such fanatics? Iran has stated clearly they intend to launch a first strike against Israel as soon as they have sufficient nuclear weapons to do so. (They have missiles capable of delivering them that distance.) Israel is so small that even a single detonation of significant size could permanently wipe them off the map, just as Iran desires. Retaliation, then, is meaningless. With retaliation and deterrence both out of the question, only a first strike is available to Israel to prevent its utter destruction.

Israel executed such a first strike against Iraq when it was close to attaining nuclear capability. The rhetoric from Iran appears to be ratcheted much higher, though, so Iranian retaliation may be far more problematic, making a surgical first strike likely unfeasible this time. What kind of first strike would Israel have to execute, then, to prevent Iran's anticipated first strike or Iran's retaliation?

Acknowledging that I'm no tactical expert, it would seem at first glance that a huge attack would be required. This attack would need to knock out the bulk of Iran's war-making capabilities, including all of its aerial arsenal (missiles, bombers). If each target were surgically removed, this would require tremendously accurate and complete intelligence. To be sure, Israel's intelligence of late has been much better than that of the U.S., but I think this may be asking too much.

The alternative would be a first strike that's not so surgical, but collateral damage would necessarily be quite high. This may be wholly unavoidable anyway, given Muslims' tactic of "hiding" their weapons among civilians. Ironically, Israel would be the bad buy, geopolitically speaking, even though Iran was the one backing Israel into the corner. I can't help but imagine this is Iran's intended strategy, using the international community to effectively dismantle Israel even if they successfully defended themselves.

Any such large-scale first strike would also place a significant strain on Israel's relationships with its immediate neighbors. Jordon, for example, has largely respected its peace treaty with Israel, even cooperating in off-the-books maneuvers of defense. These neighbors would be willing conduits for hand-carried nukes when if Iran's retaliation no longer included remote delivery. Jordan's treaty would be seriously tested, for example, as it came under tremendous pressure to support an Iranian retaliation. After all, it's a standing tenet in Islam that Jews must be murdered, and Jordan is still a Muslim nation. This says nothing of the countless thousands within and around Israel who are capable of terrorist/guerrilla response (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah, etc.). The years since Oslo have seen these enemies armed to the teeth with the aid of the international community, making the balance of power quite different than, say, the Six Day War. Were all these neighbors to join in Iran's retaliation, no matter how crippled Iran itself may be, Jacob may have a serious fight on his hands.

On the other hand, if Iran's posturing is solely accredited to one moron, assassination of that fool may quickly bring a possibility of order and coexistence for a time. I would suggest such an assassination be made to look like someone else did it, but this doesn't really matter in this case; Muslims will blame Jews no matter what the facts may be. Even arranging it as an accident may not prevent Muslim blustering against Jews, although there may be just enough international doubt to prevent significant backlash against Israel. All this hinges on the hopes that Iran's suicidal foreign policy is due to essentially one madman. I have no information to support this other than the increased rhetoric coincided with the ascension of that madman. (There is Biblical support for assassination, given specific, proper conditions.)

Israel is in a very difficult position. Probably more so than most any other time in history, all the world is against this tiny nation. (The U.S. is certainly no friend to Israel, despite falsely appearing so on the world stage.) Its options are severely limited if it desires to defend itself and survive. Any action, other than passively allowing its own destruction, is sure to raise the ire of the rest of the world, the resulting sanctions feasibly crippling it economically even if its Muslim enemies fail militarily. Pray for the peace of Jerusalem.